McCain’s Last Hope May Lie in the Electoral College

October 23, 2008 at 9:15 am Leave a comment

john-mccain39.jpgA respected political scientist in the battleground state of New Hampshire says at this stage of the presidential race, Republican John McCain’s only chance of winning on November 4 would be through the Electoral College.

When it comes to the popular vote, various polls show Barack Obama’s current lead over rival John McCain ranging from as small as one percentage point to as large as nine points. The Democratic candidate’s estimated Electoral College count, however, shows him ahead by a considerable — almost victorious — margin. Earlier this week, Rasmussen Reports placed 260 Electoral College votes firmly in the Obama camp, compared to 163 for McCain. A candidate needs 270 to win.
University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala says Obama has leveled off after two or three weeks of real growth in the polls while McCain has also leveled off from his decline over the past few weeks. However, he says the Arizona senator is merely reclaiming some of his natural base voters he lost from the financial meltdown.
Scala suggests Obama could plausibly win the popular vote 52 to 47 percent and pull in well over 300 electoral votes.
“[If] you look across the map of the United States these days, you see Obama winning in North Carolina even, let alone Virginia,” Scala observes. “John McCain is reportedly going up on the air on TV in Indiana…a state that George Bush won going away four years ago.
“So both the popular vote and the Electoral College map are not looking good for McCain right now,” the political scientist offers. “And in fact, my best guess is if McCain could win at this point, it’s only going to be through the Electoral College.”
Scala says a new Associated Press presidential poll that shows McCain trailing Obama by one point (44-43) could both be an anomaly and an indicator that McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy in the final debate has resonated with voters.
With less than two weeks to go before the election, Rasmussen Reports labels five states “pure toss-ups” in the presidential race — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada. Those states total 78 Electoral College votes.

Source: OneNewsNow


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